Congratulations, nice article: it is interesting to read it. Some suggestions from an Italian:
1) buying weapons for the army here was seen as difficult, on the one hand we feel it is an obligation to give precedence to American products. Not for quality, but because you can perceive us as hostile if we produce them. On the other hand the fear that, having too many weapons, you would have considered us hostile. I remember that until 1992 the PCI was the largest Western European communist party with 30% of preferences: would an armed communist nation have been tolerated?
2) I think this speech is valid for other European nations. Before Trump 2, the idea that Germany would arm itself was negative, a return to a 5th Reich.
3) Italy and the EU will never go to war against the US if we were not forced to because your president has ordered to invade NATO allies such as Canada and Denmark. Intervention for article 5. Or if your president sends the marines to help Putin. Reaction, not action; defense to survive, not fascist imperialism.
4) If your president asks for help to defend Taiwan, no one in the EU intervenes because Russia. Geographically Putin is next to Poland and threatens us, Taiwan is half a world away: why risk our security HERE by sending troops there? Moreover, we have no certainty that when we arrive Trump has not changed his mind.
5) many things about Trump are 1:1 with Mussolini's seizure of power as taught in Italian schools. All that's missing is a political murder, like Giacomo Matteotti, for which to take responsibility amid applause from the people. However, when Mussolini lost consensus, first he made the Lateran Pacts with the Catholic Church and then entered the Second World War. However, you have in weeks what Mussolini did to us in years: I fear an invasion of Canada within the year due to a collapse in consensus.
6) at the time of the Duce, schools taught that Italy was the best nation in the world, everyone envies and fears us, a nation chosen by God, Mussolini a man of Providence. After the war, we understood that teaching children nationalist exceptionalism leads to xenophobia and authoritarianism.
As a European why should I see it as a problem? There is short term disruption anyway. Gaining independence and power is a good objective for Europe. If it is at the expense of America, well, as you say, you chose it.
In a frivolous way - "so long and thanks for all the fish".
As a Euro… I guess see it this way. For the past roughly four generations, the United States made it possible for those countries not to spend very much on defense. That money was spent elsewhere… like social services.
Now an increasing amount of govt spending will have to go to defense. Does that mean you will all suddenly lose your social services? No. But it does mean European economies will find themselves under a strain they haven’t seen before. Evidence of that is the requirements the EU has put forth to borrow a trillion dollars (roughly) to finance the first round. That’s great… now enjoy doing that… plus 20%… for the next 40-60 years… and see where that puts your balance sheets as an economy.
Europe is not industrially nor financially equipped to do it. They’ll do it because they have to. Prior to us losing our minds… it made sense to subsidize your defense because of the benefits we gained. Europe paying for its own defense at a trillion plus yearly will have little benefit except perhaps on the margin for employment.
So… there’s that. Your economies and your populations are more fragile than the US. Maintaining a level of spending necessary to ensure premiere status is going to effectively bankrupt you guys over time. This will lead to more problems in Europe you’re already suffering… like housing… unemployment… etc. you can’t do it all… heck, we can barely do it all and our economy is (at least at the moment) several times larger than all of you in Europe put together combined.
I can understand as a feel of anger and pride to tell us to go fuck ourselves… but you’ll find out soon enough how expensive power balancing really gets… and your economies are not prepared for the next three generations to sustain it.
It is well outside my areas of expertise so …two thoughts, possibly wrong.
Firstly, as you say, it looks like we have no choice. We’d be fools to assume that there will never be another Trump, or far right Republican. The US has done it twice, the second proving a lot worse than the first. It is simply not safe for us to gamble you’ll not do it a third time. So we have to do it even if it hurts.
Secondly a proportion of the money we spend on defence currently goes to the US, boosting your economy. That money is going to go to European businesses, boosting our economies. (And impacting yours, although that is not the objective)
We don’t need the overkill the US insists on funding. Presumably to keep its defence industry in good shape. For example we only need enough nuclear weapons to destroy China, Russia, the US and couple of others. We don’t need as many the US demands, so it is less expensive for us.
Ultimately if Europe takes on anything like the debt the US considers normal we can afford an awful lot.
I think the biggest problem for Europe is whether it can ever accept the unified decision making the US takes for granted. Just as the US might find not having meaningful social services wight become a problem.
A truly well-written and important piece. Thanks for sharing it. Much of what you've written is equally applicable to my country's (Canada) context, but it's that much more difficult for us to entertain, much less act on, some of these scenarios since our two countries are attached at the hip. I admit to envying European nations a bit right now for having that very real barrier between them and this continent, better known as the Atlantic ocean. Alas.
I've wondered why Trump has sought to basically sabotage his own country and her people at this moment in time. His drama queen antics make absolutely no sense to me and I know to a good number of Americans and Europeans too. I get that he's an illiberal, a contrarian, a disruptor. But his actions are those of a mad man. Would you have any insight as to *why* he has decided to murder Pax Americana in cold blood?
The US has been taken over from the inside. That's why all this is happening. It's the only thing that makes sense. "Qui bono?" Russia. It certainly won't be the US.
I agree with CconciousCreme. We're collectively losing a vital historical moment.
Holy sh#t. I know I'm new here and am still learning. Thanks for the very informative and detailed post. I am trying to remain hopeful but it is difficult. I am so frightened for our Country and our Allies too.
Also, Please help spread the word. Our Veterans are planning massive protests for March 14-16 in Washington and around the country. This video has the details. Share if you can.
This is an essay every American should read. I am also an IR professional (or, I was until I stepped away) and I would add that America sought that global position. It wasn’t a given, but very carefully negotiated with other world leaders, and always premissed on the condition that you ‘played nice’. The world accepted your drive to be the dominant power, and we put up with decades of your bullying, because by and large you did ‘play nice’. You have slowed almost every international negotiation to serve your interest (including climate change). Your country’s wealth has ballooned because we fed your military industrial context. But, we (the rest of the word) let you, because you promissed to maintain balance. We didn’t have to allow you this role. We chose to.
Now, America has forgotten all of that. Your hubris has overflowed in a belief you’ve done it all on your own. This is a fall of your own making.
Beautifully structured article, and brings me great pleasure to encounter on Substack. I was never a professional, but did end up twice in Washington to interview for the state department. The seeming lack of intuitive understanding that the neoliberal globalist order is one of American construction for American benefit is one of the wildest things about American politics to me. I can't even call it a generational failing exactly—the gerontocracy we have today were the same people who built the system in the first place, perhaps simply now too senile to remember why.
Europe, Canada, and most of the world now realize that the US cannot be relied on the support us and worse that the US is now a credible threat against us. We need not just to manage without the US but to protect ourselves against the US. The US has declared an economic war against Canada, threatening the sovereignty of Canada, Panama, Mexico, and Greenland/Denmark. They have betrayed Ukraine and allied themselves with dictators in Russia and elsewhere. The US is actively plotting genocide in Gaza. This is way more than simply a loss of confidence in the US.
Is anyone truly seeking answers to: "Trump’s desire appears to be to bring an End To American Leadership".
Trump is a 78 year old man. So is it truly Trump's desire? Is it the Oligarchs? Is it Putin? The answer to the question of who is seeking these strange outcomes will explain what is happening and how to countermand it.
The world just lost an opportunity for major progress. Russia is deeply wounded by the extended battle in Ukraine (credit to the Biden admin for that), China was focusing more economics less war, even political pushback in Iran against the theocracy was an optimistic sign. We needed to get over our oppressions and focus on saving the planet, becoming sustainable, accepting the realities of unsustainable growth. Working together as economic partners, not war monger enemies. We were so close. Maybe there will be another opportunity someday but it could have been NOW.
We are in the "Scrambles" response to the collapse of global climate stability. The corporate-captured State is being raided by corporate raiders, and we do not know if liberal-democratic institutions will capture dominance again. If the liberal nation-state goes the way of the dodo, and humanity fails to shift to a framework of cooperation economically and a "World Beyond War" security structure... DOOM. (Ideological rhetoric, I know, not realpolitique.)
Congratulations, nice article: it is interesting to read it. Some suggestions from an Italian:
1) buying weapons for the army here was seen as difficult, on the one hand we feel it is an obligation to give precedence to American products. Not for quality, but because you can perceive us as hostile if we produce them. On the other hand the fear that, having too many weapons, you would have considered us hostile. I remember that until 1992 the PCI was the largest Western European communist party with 30% of preferences: would an armed communist nation have been tolerated?
2) I think this speech is valid for other European nations. Before Trump 2, the idea that Germany would arm itself was negative, a return to a 5th Reich.
3) Italy and the EU will never go to war against the US if we were not forced to because your president has ordered to invade NATO allies such as Canada and Denmark. Intervention for article 5. Or if your president sends the marines to help Putin. Reaction, not action; defense to survive, not fascist imperialism.
4) If your president asks for help to defend Taiwan, no one in the EU intervenes because Russia. Geographically Putin is next to Poland and threatens us, Taiwan is half a world away: why risk our security HERE by sending troops there? Moreover, we have no certainty that when we arrive Trump has not changed his mind.
5) many things about Trump are 1:1 with Mussolini's seizure of power as taught in Italian schools. All that's missing is a political murder, like Giacomo Matteotti, for which to take responsibility amid applause from the people. However, when Mussolini lost consensus, first he made the Lateran Pacts with the Catholic Church and then entered the Second World War. However, you have in weeks what Mussolini did to us in years: I fear an invasion of Canada within the year due to a collapse in consensus.
6) at the time of the Duce, schools taught that Italy was the best nation in the world, everyone envies and fears us, a nation chosen by God, Mussolini a man of Providence. After the war, we understood that teaching children nationalist exceptionalism leads to xenophobia and authoritarianism.
Interesting, well written, logically argued.
As a European why should I see it as a problem? There is short term disruption anyway. Gaining independence and power is a good objective for Europe. If it is at the expense of America, well, as you say, you chose it.
In a frivolous way - "so long and thanks for all the fish".
As a Euro… I guess see it this way. For the past roughly four generations, the United States made it possible for those countries not to spend very much on defense. That money was spent elsewhere… like social services.
Now an increasing amount of govt spending will have to go to defense. Does that mean you will all suddenly lose your social services? No. But it does mean European economies will find themselves under a strain they haven’t seen before. Evidence of that is the requirements the EU has put forth to borrow a trillion dollars (roughly) to finance the first round. That’s great… now enjoy doing that… plus 20%… for the next 40-60 years… and see where that puts your balance sheets as an economy.
Europe is not industrially nor financially equipped to do it. They’ll do it because they have to. Prior to us losing our minds… it made sense to subsidize your defense because of the benefits we gained. Europe paying for its own defense at a trillion plus yearly will have little benefit except perhaps on the margin for employment.
So… there’s that. Your economies and your populations are more fragile than the US. Maintaining a level of spending necessary to ensure premiere status is going to effectively bankrupt you guys over time. This will lead to more problems in Europe you’re already suffering… like housing… unemployment… etc. you can’t do it all… heck, we can barely do it all and our economy is (at least at the moment) several times larger than all of you in Europe put together combined.
I can understand as a feel of anger and pride to tell us to go fuck ourselves… but you’ll find out soon enough how expensive power balancing really gets… and your economies are not prepared for the next three generations to sustain it.
Thank you for your thorough response.
It is well outside my areas of expertise so …two thoughts, possibly wrong.
Firstly, as you say, it looks like we have no choice. We’d be fools to assume that there will never be another Trump, or far right Republican. The US has done it twice, the second proving a lot worse than the first. It is simply not safe for us to gamble you’ll not do it a third time. So we have to do it even if it hurts.
Secondly a proportion of the money we spend on defence currently goes to the US, boosting your economy. That money is going to go to European businesses, boosting our economies. (And impacting yours, although that is not the objective)
We don’t need the overkill the US insists on funding. Presumably to keep its defence industry in good shape. For example we only need enough nuclear weapons to destroy China, Russia, the US and couple of others. We don’t need as many the US demands, so it is less expensive for us.
Ultimately if Europe takes on anything like the debt the US considers normal we can afford an awful lot.
I think the biggest problem for Europe is whether it can ever accept the unified decision making the US takes for granted. Just as the US might find not having meaningful social services wight become a problem.
A truly well-written and important piece. Thanks for sharing it. Much of what you've written is equally applicable to my country's (Canada) context, but it's that much more difficult for us to entertain, much less act on, some of these scenarios since our two countries are attached at the hip. I admit to envying European nations a bit right now for having that very real barrier between them and this continent, better known as the Atlantic ocean. Alas.
I've wondered why Trump has sought to basically sabotage his own country and her people at this moment in time. His drama queen antics make absolutely no sense to me and I know to a good number of Americans and Europeans too. I get that he's an illiberal, a contrarian, a disruptor. But his actions are those of a mad man. Would you have any insight as to *why* he has decided to murder Pax Americana in cold blood?
Thanks again for a great read.
The US has been taken over from the inside. That's why all this is happening. It's the only thing that makes sense. "Qui bono?" Russia. It certainly won't be the US.
I agree with CconciousCreme. We're collectively losing a vital historical moment.
Holy sh#t. I know I'm new here and am still learning. Thanks for the very informative and detailed post. I am trying to remain hopeful but it is difficult. I am so frightened for our Country and our Allies too.
Also, Please help spread the word. Our Veterans are planning massive protests for March 14-16 in Washington and around the country. This video has the details. Share if you can.
https://youtu.be/GoNjoujY9Zg?si=PABwWcKZEYkXw4TI
This is an essay every American should read. I am also an IR professional (or, I was until I stepped away) and I would add that America sought that global position. It wasn’t a given, but very carefully negotiated with other world leaders, and always premissed on the condition that you ‘played nice’. The world accepted your drive to be the dominant power, and we put up with decades of your bullying, because by and large you did ‘play nice’. You have slowed almost every international negotiation to serve your interest (including climate change). Your country’s wealth has ballooned because we fed your military industrial context. But, we (the rest of the word) let you, because you promissed to maintain balance. We didn’t have to allow you this role. We chose to.
Now, America has forgotten all of that. Your hubris has overflowed in a belief you’ve done it all on your own. This is a fall of your own making.
Beautifully structured article, and brings me great pleasure to encounter on Substack. I was never a professional, but did end up twice in Washington to interview for the state department. The seeming lack of intuitive understanding that the neoliberal globalist order is one of American construction for American benefit is one of the wildest things about American politics to me. I can't even call it a generational failing exactly—the gerontocracy we have today were the same people who built the system in the first place, perhaps simply now too senile to remember why.
Europe, Canada, and most of the world now realize that the US cannot be relied on the support us and worse that the US is now a credible threat against us. We need not just to manage without the US but to protect ourselves against the US. The US has declared an economic war against Canada, threatening the sovereignty of Canada, Panama, Mexico, and Greenland/Denmark. They have betrayed Ukraine and allied themselves with dictators in Russia and elsewhere. The US is actively plotting genocide in Gaza. This is way more than simply a loss of confidence in the US.
I’d agree with that… it is way more than a loss of confidence. Hence it’s an order shift.
France should ask for the return of the Statue of Liberty.
Is anyone truly seeking answers to: "Trump’s desire appears to be to bring an End To American Leadership".
Trump is a 78 year old man. So is it truly Trump's desire? Is it the Oligarchs? Is it Putin? The answer to the question of who is seeking these strange outcomes will explain what is happening and how to countermand it.
The world just lost an opportunity for major progress. Russia is deeply wounded by the extended battle in Ukraine (credit to the Biden admin for that), China was focusing more economics less war, even political pushback in Iran against the theocracy was an optimistic sign. We needed to get over our oppressions and focus on saving the planet, becoming sustainable, accepting the realities of unsustainable growth. Working together as economic partners, not war monger enemies. We were so close. Maybe there will be another opportunity someday but it could have been NOW.
Europe can do better than the messed up US so-called leadership!
I hope the magats can comprehend the deep shit we’re in. 🤦♀️
They don't. Propaganda works.
We are in the "Scrambles" response to the collapse of global climate stability. The corporate-captured State is being raided by corporate raiders, and we do not know if liberal-democratic institutions will capture dominance again. If the liberal nation-state goes the way of the dodo, and humanity fails to shift to a framework of cooperation economically and a "World Beyond War" security structure... DOOM. (Ideological rhetoric, I know, not realpolitique.)
First paragraph: Protection, as in "protection racket."
We must be. The USA has turned its back on decency and humanity. It deserves to be left behind.
We don’t have a choice.