The Democracy Death Clock

An Explanation: Slowly at first, then all at once.

The Doomsday Clock is a symbol that represents the estimated likelihood of a human-made global catastrophe, in the opinion of the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Throughout much of my life, the “minutes to midnight,” came to mean how close the United States and the USSR were to a full exchange of nuclear weapons, and by extension, the likely end of human civilization.

The closest the clock ever came to “midnight,” in my lifetime was 2018 and today. Most people might think it was during the Cold War. There were plenty of “close calls” during that time, 1981, 1984, and when the wall fell (because of concerns the Russians might launch attacks in the final “death throws” of Communism.)

Before Trump was elected the 47th President, the closest the Doomsday Clock ever was to midnight was 2018, the last time Trump was President:

• The U.S. withdrew from key arms control agreements, such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, raising fears of a renewed arms race with Russia.

• The administration expanded the role of nuclear weapons in military strategy, including developing new, smaller, "usable" nukes.

• The U.S. and North Korea exchanged heated rhetoric, with Trump famously threatening "fire and fury" against Pyongyang.

• The Trump administration repealed climate regulations, rolling back environmental protections. This led to an ignored scientific consensus on climate change worsening, with the U.S. pulling out of international climate cooperation.

At the moment, the clock sits at 89 seconds. Again, thanks to Donald Trump.

• Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Ongoing hostilities have heightened nuclear tensions, with concerns over potential escalation and breaches of nuclear safety protocols.

• Arms Control Erosion: Deterioration of key treaties, such as Russia's suspension of the New START agreement, has undermined global nuclear stability.

• Artificial Intelligence: Rapid AI advancements, particularly in military applications, pose new risks without proper regulation.

• Threats against US allies, trade sanctions, and the chance of global economic collapse.

The idea behind the Doomsday Clock is that it is a combination of quantitative and qualitative measures that gives a visual cue as to how much instability exists in the world system, and how likely that system is to generate an event that kills all of mankind.

The closer the clock is to “midnight,” the more likely the “black swan” event that kills us all. When the clock strikes “midnight,” theoretically, the chance of a black swan event hits 100% and mankind is destroyed.

The Long Memo has created its clock - the Democracy Death Clock. We aren’t tracking the likelihood of a black swan event that ends mankind, instead, we’re tracking the chance that the US is heading into an unchecked autocracy.

This project comes as a result of the questions that I get asked every week. These questions disturb me greatly. They disturb me not because of the people asking me the questions. I feel genuine empathy for them. They disturb me because we should not have to ask these questions, but here we are. They are questions about whether America is becoming a dictatorship? Will they be sent to death camps? How will we know if it is too late? How will we know when to “get out,” (hint: now is the time if that is how you feel.)

So I’ve developed a version of the “Doomsday Clock” to give people a metric to evaluate where things stand. I’ll give you a baseline, and then we’ll evaluate things as they arise.

Here’s how the model works:

The Democracy Death Clock Model

The Democracy Death Clock measures how close the United States is to full authoritarian rule, using a structured evaluation of democratic backsliding. Updated periodically (not less than monthly), the clock moves forward or backward based on key developments across six critical variables:

1. Electoral Integrity & Political Legitimacy – Examines election interference, suppression tactics, and the erosion of competitive democracy. Events like a legislature overturning election results or widespread voter disenfranchisement accelerate the clock.

2. Judicial Independence & Rule of Law – Tracks the extent to which courts remain independent or become instruments of executive power. Court rulings that eliminate checks and balances push the clock forward.

3. Militarization & Police State Expansion—This section evaluates the use of force against civilians, expansion of federal security powers, and suppression of dissent. The deployment of military units for domestic control signals a major leap toward midnight.

4. Media Suppression & Propaganda – Monitors press freedom, government crackdowns on journalists, and state-controlled messaging. A silenced or state-dominated press is a key warning sign of authoritarian consolidation.

5. Cultural & Social Control – Assesses ideological enforcement, mandatory loyalty oaths, book bans, and persecution of marginalized groups. When compliance with the ruling party becomes mandatory for social participation, democracy nears collapse.

6. International Isolation & Realignment – Observes shifts in foreign policy, including U.S. withdrawal from democratic alliances and alignment with autocratic regimes. A complete break from democratic norms globally would mark the final minutes before midnight.

Each event is weighted based on its impact, with more significant structural shifts moving the clock forward by minutes, while smaller trends contribute incremental seconds. If an unexpected pro-democracy development occurs—such as an independent court ruling or a mass political resistance movement—the clock may pause or move slightly backward. The goal is to provide a clear, data-driven warning about the accelerating collapse of American democracy.

Let me be clear, readers will never see the clock strike 12:00:00. In all likelihood, the closest readers will ever see the clock get is 11:59:00 if I had to guess. If we’re less than 60 seconds to midnight, America is a place that is well down the path of looking like the one I depicted in “The Erasure of America.” As such, Substack won’t exist (or if it does, every Substack is “How much do you love Donald Trump!”)

You’ll unlikely be able to read anything like The Long Memo. We’ll never talk again (assuming I’m not shot in the head. I intend to have long fled America before then.)

I’ll also posit a hypothesis: You will never see the clock go back to before 11:45:00 again. The clock likely stood at 15 minutes to midnight around 2012–2016, during Barack Obama's second term or the lead-up to Trump’s first election. Why:

Why 2012–2016?

1. Democracy Was Under Strain, But Not in Crisis

   • The U.S. was still classified as a “full democracy” or “flawed democracy” by global democracy indexes.

   • There were partisan divides, but political violence and election interference had not yet escalated to existential threats.

2. Key Warning Signs Were Emerging

   • 2013: Shelby County v. Holder (SCOTUS gutted the Voting Rights Act, allowing states to pass restrictive voting laws).

   • 2014: Rise of hyper-partisan media (Fox News, Breitbart, and social media radicalization fueled polarization).

   • 2016: Russian interference in U.S. elections and Trump’s “rigged election” rhetoric planted the seeds for future destabilization.

3. Pre-Trump Normalcy

   • The U.S. still participated in international democratic institutions.

   • The Supreme Court, Congress, and media remained relatively independent.

   • While gerrymandering and voter suppression existed, they had not yet escalated into full-blown election subversion.

The Transition to 10 Minutes to Midnight

• 2016 Election: Trump’s victory and rise of election disinformation.

• 2017–2019: First impeachment, deep political polarization, rise of conspiracy-driven politics.

• 2020: Trump’s attempt to overturn the election and the January 6 insurrection.

• 2021–2024: Ongoing democratic backsliding, however Biden slowed the rate of institutional decay.

At the beginning of the 2024 election, I judged that the US was “10 Minutes to Midnight.” With the election of Trump, the US jumped from 10 minutes to eight (and now seven for the first report). I’ll explain in the first post why that is the case, but there we are.

The Democracy Death Clock Rubric

A structured scale from a healthy democracy (30 minutes to midnight) to brutal dictatorship (Midnight) in 5-minute increments.

• 🕰️ 30 Minutes to Midnight – Completely Healthy Democracy

  • Free and fair elections.

  • Independent judiciary and press.

  • Strong checks and balances.

  • High civic engagement and trust in institutions.

• 🕰️ 25 Minutes to Midnight – Strong Democracy with Minor Flaws

  • Some partisan gerrymandering.

  • Occasional judicial bias.

  • Corporate influence in politics.

  • Institutions still function independently.

• 🕰️ 20 Minutes to Midnight – Flawed Democracy

  • Growing polarization and wealth inequality.

  • Increased government overreach.

  • Some voter suppression tactics.

  • Declining trust in democratic institutions.

• 🕰️ 15 Minutes to Midnight – Democratic Decline Begins

  • Attacks on press credibility and judicial independence.

  • Executive power expanding.

  • Erosion of voting rights (e.g., gutting of Voting Rights Act).

  • Growing extremism and political violence.

• 🕰️ 10 Minutes to Midnight – Warning Signs of Authoritarianism

  • Widespread gerrymandering and election interference.

  • Government intimidation of journalists and media.

  • Protest suppression and crackdown on dissent.

  • Court-packing or judicial capture attempts.

• 🕰️ 5 Minutes to Midnight – Authoritarian Takeover Underway

  • Judiciary no longer independent.

  • Elections are manipulated or heavily restricted.

  • Opposition parties face legal or financial barriers.

  • State-run propaganda dominates media narratives.

  • Internal surveillance increases.

• 🕰️ 0 Minutes (Midnight) – Full Dictatorship

  • One-party rule established.

  • Judiciary is completely neutralized.

  • Elections are abolished or purely ceremonial.

  • Dissent is criminalized; mass political purges occur.

  • Press is state-controlled; loyalty to the regime is mandatory.

  • Military/police enforce political ideology with violence.

Conclusion

The Democracy Death Clock is not a prophecy or a dramatization—it is a structured measure of where we are based on observable trends and historical precedent. The fact that such a model is necessary at all should be disturbing. The very idea that we need a system to track whether the United States is descending into authoritarian rule is, in itself, a warning.

As you will see, we are beyond the early warning signs. The institutions meant to preserve democracy are under direct assault, and the pace of their erosion is accelerating. The question is not whether America is at risk of becoming an autocracy; the question is how much time remains before that transformation is complete.

This is not a drill. It is not a thought experiment. It is a crisis unfolding in real time. The Democracy Death Clock exists to document that reality, month by month, minute by minute.